What 2010 Will Bring



As Yogi Berra once said, It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future. A few predictions from the 2010 crystal ball:

Google’s pride goeth before its fall. Not content to be the big kahuna in technology, Google soon becomes a consumer products company with the Nexus One. Big mistake. This requires a totally different competency – oh yes, and means lower margins. Google has no experience in consumer marketing and brand loyalty is unproven at best. There’s a big difference between convincing ISPs or OEMs to default to your search engine and convincing millions of consumers to choose an unsubsidized phone.

Also, sales will lag without subsidies which further depresses margins. Remember that iPhone sales didn’t soar until AT&T’s subsidies brought the price below $200.

And speaking of Apple products….

Apple’s tablet will produce a migraine. Let’s assume that the iSlate is introduced in January and costs around $800 . The Mac Air isn’t much more expensive and probably does a lot more. Moreover, if you’re going to work on the LIRR or leaving on a business trip, you’re already carrying your laptop. So why carry another expensive gadget which becomes yet another thing to break, leave in the hotel room, or lose in the airport. Not to mention that the AppleCare will likely be another $250.

In this economy? Not gonna happen.

Clearwire’s troubles will mount. “You got real trouble comin’,” said Jackie Gleason in a memorable 1976 movie line and this will probably be Clearwire’s mantra in 2010. Even though the WiMax technology is decent, the idea that consumers on a mass market scale will opt for an unbundled service sufficient to cover capital outlays is fanciful. The company’s recent promo will not be enough to spark sufficient growth. Meanwhile, Google’s decision to turn off the investment spigot looks increasing prescient.

Verizon still doesn’t get an iPhone – unless it does. This is my Hail Mary. Conventional wisdom has it that Verizon gets a CDMA iPhone by 3Q10. I still doubt it. That’s when the company will be rolling out its 4G service. So why would Apple want to tie down its iPhone with a CDMA technology that Verizon itself will be calling outdated? Sure, Apple will sell a few million more iPhones but it’s still faced with the task of adapting 4G technology to the iPhone OS. Not a very appealing long-term strategy from a company that prides itself on always being at the cutting edge.

Odds are that I’ll be wrong on the last one. But as Eli Manning and David Tyree could tell you, sometimes it pays to throw long.