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February 13, 2011

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”

Filed under: Technology, Wireless Industry — Peter Arnold

Ken OlsenDigital Equipment Corporation (DEC) founder and longtime CEO Ken Olsen died this week at 84.  By all accounts, Olsen was a decent man but his passing is a timely reminder of the problems of lineal thinking with technology.

Olsen missed the PC revolution because he didn’t see oncoming OS improvements that would make the computer a consumer product.  He wasn’t alone.  Around 1980, IBM rejected a young Bill Gates’ offer to sell the forerunner of the Windows OS for about $100,000.  As decisions go, that’s akin to General Pickett telling his troops to take Cemetery Hill.

Olsen lasted as DEC’s CEO for another 15 years after making the above comment in 1977.  But by that time, the company was well into its death roll.

Fast forward to today: The PC era is ending and the OS as we’ve known it for a generation won’t matter because what made it important to us is quickly migrating to racks in a dark data center. Devices are increasingly coming preloaded with the OS on a chip, while apps and data are stored in the cloud.

Meanwhile, our computer gizmos are falling into two groups: mobile devices, including ultralight laptops, and large displays with integrated receivers for entertainment.

DEC’s mainframes lost to minicomputers 20+ years ago because the latter were less than half the cost.  (As an added bonus, they didn’t need a special room cooled to the temperature of Detroit in February.)  By the early 1990s, minicomputers had lost out to PCs because the computing cost of latter was less than half that of a VAX.   Now, look forward to what the cloud means: Companies can slash their IT staff because they won’t need to spend the money when employees have stripped down smart terminals, an small encrypted hard drive and an Ethernet connection.

Welcome to the future!

January 18, 2011

Camelot Rises Again

Filed under: Kennedy Administration, White House — Peter Arnold

john kennedyJim Cicconi, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff and AT&T’s senior executive vice president, just posted this wonderful blog about the new online John F. Kennedy Presidential Library archives, launched to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the President’s inauguration.  (Disclosure: Yes, I’ve worked for Jim for more than a decade.)  Anyone interested in Presidential history should be as fascinated by these digitized records as Charles Darwin was by the Galapagos.

Even if the most famous line in JFK’s repertoire wasn’t quite an original, there is still an amazing amount of information online.  My favorite so far: the recorded call between Presidents Kennedy and Eisenhower on October 22, 1962, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

So spend some time on the site and prepare to be amazed at how quickly a few minutes can turn into hours.

January 6, 2011

Spam is gone and other tech truisms

Filed under: America Online, Technology — Peter Arnold

willrogersAs the American philosopher Yogi Berra once said, It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.  And as the late Will Rogers (left) remarked, It isn’t what we don’t know that causes us trouble, it’s what we do know that just ain’t so.

In that vein, Cody Willard at Marketwatch just published a mildly amusing post, “Top 10 Dumbest Tech Predictions of All Time.”  A few entries are depressingly predictable such as comments disparaging the utility of the telephone or computer.  Overall, though, it’s worth reading as a window into the problems of lineal thinking when confronting a dynamic industry.

Alas, when it comes to technology ideas, there’s no shortage of bad ideas.  Remember Flooz?  Mercata?  Cyberrebates.com?  Didn’t think so.  Still, it’s worth adding two recent gems to Willard’s list including:

“By joining forces with Time Warner, we will fundamentally change the way people get information, communicate with others, buy products and are entertained – providing far-reaching benefits to our customers and shareholders.” That was Steve Case on January 10, 2000 announcing the AOL/TimeWarner merger that he and Ken Novack had been pushing.  Further comment superfluous.

“Two years from now, spam will be solved.” That was Bill Gates speaking to the BBC at Davos in 2004.  Alas, his prediction is just slightly off — to the tune of about 70 billion a day, according to this article in The New York Times.  It must’ve been the altitude.

This farce could go on and on since chronicling absurd tech predictions is like shooting fish in a barrel.  For the ultimate chronology of awful (and mostly hilarious) predictions, check out The Experts Speak by Chris Cerf and Victor Navasky.

January 4, 2011

Smart TV: A not-so-smart idea

Filed under: Technology — Peter Arnold

According to The Wall Street Journal, TV manufacturers are increasingly looking at bringing the Internet to your TV in order to create a more interactive experience.  Don’t bet on success.

A basic rule of marketing consumer products is that you won’t succeed by taking something simple and making it complex.  First, there is the ingrained consumer habit that TV watching is a passive experience.  It’s about entertainment.  Adding an Internet component inevitably adds complexity, starting with a new software system that consumers must master.  Combine that with the archaic copyright laws governing retransmission and you have a train wreck in the making.

Look no further than the reporting from The NY Times’ Ashlee Vance and Claire Miller on Google’s recent Google TV disaster to see the problem.

Second, recent consumer electronics trends are clear: It’s all about mobility.  Laptops have surged past desktops. Smartphones now comprise more than a third of the U.S. mobile phone market, likely to become a majority by this time next year.  The idea that your flat screen will become the focal point for social networking, commerce and other apps seems, at best, fanciful.

Third, there’s the shark in the water: Broadband connections mean virus/malware threats.  Smart TVs are already attracting hackers’ attention and the unspoken truth about most current “smart TVs” is that their defenses against this threat are woeful at best. As a practical matter, that means the Amazon link that suddenly appears on your TV screen is really routing you to a server in Novosibirsk.

Consumers already need to update their PCs and smartphones.  How many will relish the thought that they need to stay current on yet another product?

As the old marketing adage goes, Companies never succeed by taking something simple and making it complex.  (Mr. Ballmer, call your office about Windows 7.)   The Smart TV is a wonderful concept from a technological perspective.  Those who enjoy thumbing through user manuals will also like it.  But for most consumers?  Doubt it.

December 2, 2010

It was 12 years ago today

Filed under: Uncategorized — Peter Arnold

That may not have quite the ring of the opening line to Sgt. Pepper but on this date in 1998, I opened Arnold Consulting Group for business.  A bluff Democrat was in the White House, Congressional Republicans were overplaying their hands and the Washington Redskins were performing abysmally.  Certain things in life don’t necessarily change.

Special thanks to all my clients through the years but above all to my colleagues at AT&T and the National Structured Settlements Trade Association, both of whom have been with me since Day One.

Profound and deserved thanks should go to many, many people but two in particular stand out for their guidance and support through the years: Jim Cicconi at AT&T and Randy Dyer of the NSSTA and more recently, Ringler Associates.  For all their help, I am tremendously grateful.  Honorable mentions are also due to former White House spokesman Mike McCurry and litigator extraordinaire Christopher Wolf at Hogan Lovells, both of whom have generously imparted their considerable wisdom through the years.

Thanks to everyone and be assured that every day, we will continue to work to earn your trust.

December 1, 2010

Fair is foul

Filed under: Music Industry — Peter Arnold

GimmeShelterMovieThere’s something beyond ironic in the new Call of Duty: Black Ops commercial that’s blanketing the networks and picking up an impressive 2.7 million YouTube streams.  No, it’s not Kobe Bryant looking spectacularly ill-suited firing his converted AR-15 with the large mag.

The uber-irony is in the choice of “Gimme Shelter” as the background music.  Forty years ago, this song was the 1960s definitive anti-war anthem.  As Mick Jagger told Rolling Stone in 1995, “That’s a kind of end-of-the-world song, really. It’s apocalypse; the whole record’s like that.”  But that was more than a generation ago and (irony alert) fortunately America is no longer committing tens of thousands of troops to a land war halfway around the world.

Twenty years ago, the Beatles’ “Revolution” became a self-parody when EMI and Michael Jackson licensed it to Nike for the company’s TV ads.  Now it looks like another defining theme of the 1960’s has gone down that path, inspiring legions of home-bound Americans to harness their inner David Hackworth and take arms against a sea of troubles.

As a once-great rock group once sang, “Sad, sad, sad.”

November 16, 2010

Sir Paul: Still believing in yesterday

Filed under: Apple, Music Industry — Peter Arnold

BEATLESThere’s something remarkably ironic in today’s news that iTunes will begin selling Beatles songs.  Paul McCartney released a statement saying in part, “We’re really excited to bring the Beatles’ music to iTunes.  It’s fantastic to see the songs we originally released on vinyl receive as much love in the digital world as they did the first time around.”

The comment is risible for the leader of a band that for so many years defined the musical avant garde but now acts more like a quaint anachronism.  Itunes launched in January 2001 and earlier this year commemorated its 10 billionth music download. Yet only now are the songs that once defined rock’s leading edge available.  In short, it’s long past the time that legions of Beatles fans have grabbed Abbey Road or Magical Mystery Tour off Limewire.

That said, no one likes a curmudgeon so it’s worth a shout-out to the best aspect of today’s announcement, namely the availability of the 1964 Live at Washington Coliseum concert.  As Randy Lewis at the LA Times describes it, the concert was “never before released officially.” Loose translation: All you had to do before today was to fire up gnutella.

October 31, 2010

Theodore Sorensen, R.I.P.

Filed under: White House — Peter Arnold

Recognize the following?

Are you a politician asking what your country can do for you or a zealous one asking what you can do for your country? If you are the first, then you are a parasite; if the second, then you are an oasis in a desert.

A generation before John Kennedy’s famous “ask not” line, Khalil Gibran spoke those words and the great Kennedy speechwriter Ted Sorensen crafted his boss’ most recognized line based on Gibran’s question.  Sadly, Sorensen passed away today in New York.

While not taking anything away from Sorensen’s greatness, this Gibran incident is a timely reminder that even among great speechwriters, the art of “borrowing” is a time-honored tradition.  (It’s even possible that this former White House speechwriter might have inadvertently borrowed a line or three from a previous president’s remarks while scrambling to finish a last-minute speech during the 1988 campaign.)  Indeed, the late William Safire, a speechwriter in the Nixon White House, used to tell the story of how, frantic to meet a deadline, he “borrowed” the text of a speech given by (as I recall) President Eisenhower.  After Nixon gave the speech, Safire called one of Ike’s aides to admit the transgression.  According to Safire, that aide merely laughed and said that they had taken the section in question from a speech that Calvin Coolidge once gave.

R.I.P., Mr. Sorensen.  Between you and the late William F. Buckley, there’s little doubt that God and St. Peter are thumbing through the dictionary more often.

August 28, 2010

Here’s to you, Mr. Welliver

Filed under: White House — Peter Arnold

During the mid-1980s, I was fortunate to work in the White House as a speechwriter to then-Vice President George H.W. Bush. This apparently caused Pat Jampol, my wonderful cousin in Charlotte, to ask recently about the genesis of White House speechwriting. “Who was the first President to use one and not write their own,” she asks. “Or in what era did the politicians first employ speechwriters?” Since Pat was kind enough to take me trick-or-treating in Rye, New York when I was about 5, the least I can do is respond with far more information than she probably ever wanted.

The first recorded White House speechwriter was Judson Churchill Welliver during the Harding Administration.  Welliver was a distant relation to the future British Prime Minister, which may suggest literary genius in the DNA. For a couple of generations, White House speechwriters labored in an enforced anonymity that would have impressed Kim Jung Il.  But cracks began in the 1970s, after The New York Times hired William Safire to be the in-house editorial page conservative.  Subsequently, Carter speechwriter Hendrik Hertzberg earned prominence at The New Republic, Peggy Noonan went to The Wall Street Journal and now Mike Gerson’s writings grace the pages of The Washington Post.

As to Pat’s other question about Presidents writing their own speeches, most do it well — far better than their speechwriters.  Many times during my years at the White House (where incidentally my office was right below that of Oliver North and Fawn Hall) I’d see photocopies of speech drafts that Ronald Reagan prepared himself in his distinctive longhand on yellow legal pads.

And there’s the rub.  In the end, even a brilliant speechwriter does not a great speech make.

As my Dartmouth colleague Peter Robinson, who wrote for Ronald Reagan at the same time I wrote for “the elder” George Bush, notes, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon all had great speechwriters. Yet they were never called The Great Communicator because they never fully mastered the ability to convey a clearsighted vision to the American people.

Thanks for your interest, Pat.  Hope this helps.

April 28, 2010

Shakespeare’s Words & Shapiro’s Unsullied Text

Filed under: Dartmouth College — Peter Arnold

BARDYes, Christopher Marlowe was a wonderful writer. So were Sir Walter Raleigh and especially Francis Bacon. But none of them wrote William Shakespeare’s plays. Period.

The reason for such Euclidian certitude is former Dartmouth College English Professor James Shapiro, now safely decamped to Columbia.  The author of 1599: a Year in the Life of William Shakespeare which earned him the 2006 Samuel Johnson Prize, Shapiro has just published Contested Will: Who Wrote Shakespeare? At nearly 400 pages brimming with 16th century detail, this might not be the best option for the Hamptons this summer.  But for anyone who seriously entertains the idea that someone other than The Bard wrote his plays, this book is indispensable.

A few years ago (OK, about 25), I was lucky enough to spend a semester as a student of Shapiro’s.  It was the kind of small seminar for which Dartmouth is renowned and which bore a charmed life.  Shapiro’s pedagogy was astounding.  Boldness was his friend and his intellect was sharper than a serpent’s tooth.

Incidentally, here’s a good review and analysis from The Independent of both Shapiro’s book and the larger authorship issue.  To purchase a copy, here’s a link to Amazon.

 
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